This week: Alpaca opens door to prediction markets with CFTC, NFA registration

Alpaca opens door to prediction markets with CFTC, NFA registration

The news: Alpaca, the agent-first brokerage infrastructure provider, has registered its subsidiary Alpaca Derivatives LLC with the CFTC as a futures commission merchant and joined the National Futures Association—clearing the way to offer access to event contracts on prediction markets. The move lets Alpaca's fintech and institutional partners add prediction-market access through the same infrastructure they already use, with plans to expand into a broader range of futures products over time.

Zoom in: Alpaca is framing this as an infrastructure play rather than a consumer one. “Alpaca is building a one-stop platform for financial companies that want to give their customers access to more markets,” Chief Brokerage Officer Tony Lee said in the release. "By adding event contracts to our platform, we can give partners a simpler way to expand their offerings through the infrastructure they already use to build and scale their businesses." The company claims to already support over 10M brokerage accounts across hundreds of fintechs in more than 40 countries.

Why it matters: Alpaca is making event contracts something any fintech app can add to its existing platform through a single integration, rather than a standalone app users have to seek out. That opens a path for prediction markets to reach millions of everyday traders through the brokerages and apps already serving them.

Turf is joining Polymarket to level up in-game trading

The news: Polymarket has brought on the six-person team behind "Turf," a real-time NFL prediction game, to enhance its in-game trading products, including sports micro markets. The developers will now work across Polymarket's US web and app, building out live features like next-play, next-drive, and next-score forecasts.

Zoom in: Turf launched earlier this year on the App Store, offering a highly interactive way to predict NFL micro markets alongside a live broadcast, with in-app chat and leaderboard contests. The acquihire signals Polymarket may extend that model to MLB, NBA, UFC, and other leagues—though without streaming rights, users still need a separate service to watch games live.

Why it matters: The move continues a wave of design and feature upgrades as prediction markets compete in an increasingly crowded US field. Streaming remains the gap: licensed sportsbooks can offer a true one-stop shop, while exchanges like Polymarket stay firewalled from exclusive rights—making product and UX a top priority for now.

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ParlayX is chasing the capital trapped inside prediction market trades

The news: ParlayX, the prediction-market infrastructure startup from co-founder and CEO Andrew Gonzalez and co-founder Antonio Cosio, has launched a permissioning and capital-control layer that sits on top of exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket. Funds can carve out a "pod," fund it from their balance sheet, assign specific traders, and set policies down to which markets they can trade—with custody, wallet management, and API-key credentialing bundled in. Five market makers are live today, following a $100K First Pitch win at SBC Summit Americas in June and a seven-figure round closed in May.

Zoom in: Gonzalez is blunt about the ceiling on seat-based software alone—at roughly $2K a month per market maker across maybe 100 total customers, "that's just not very investible, to be quite frank," he said on The BettingStartups Podcast. The bigger play is netting: seeing a market maker's exposure across every exchange at once, something no single venue can do on its own, positioning ParlayX as the "Plaid for prediction markets."

Why it matters: As prediction markets institutionalize, capital locked against economically offsetting positions is a real drag on market makers who post full collateral on each leg separately. Kalshi is building its own netting tools, but each exchange can only see its own book—leaving room for a neutral layer that spans all of them, eventually issuing short-term loans against netted portfolios and charging exchanges per connection rather than the desks.

Catch out full conversation with Gonzalez on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

• MagicMarkets launched an early beta of its zero-commission sports prediction market that aggregates liquidity across venues into a single wallet and book, with self-serve API access. Not yet open to US or UK traders.

• Novig launched a "responsible trading framework" in its exchange rulebook, codifying a 21+ age minimum and marketing restrictions as it positions itself as a more cautious sports prediction market.

• Fliff and Onyx Odds filed FCM applications with the NFA, moving deeper into federally regulated prediction markets as state pressure builds on the sweepstakes model.

• Defy The Odds is hosting an "Office Hours" AMA with Alderney eGaming CEO Susan O'Leary on September 1 at 12:00 pm ET to help startups navigate licensing decisions. RSVP here.

• 🆕 Solas Compliance is hiring a Sales & Customer Success Manager to own the full commercial relationship with clients, from pipeline to close to account growth, working directly with the CEO. Remote (London preferred). (View job)

• DubClub is hiring a Lifecycle Marketing & CRM Lead to build its lifecycle marketing function from scratch, owning creator and subscriber retention. (View job)

• 🆕 A B2B online casino games provider is seeking a Sales Manager to drive the full sales cycle and expand its distribution network across Africa, LATAM, and Europe. Remote (LATAM). (View job)

Looking for your next key hire or role? Connect with Betting Jobs next month at G2E Las Vegas. Contact Carla Souter or Jennifer Innes to get in touch.

• Launching the "Plaid for prediction markets" w/ Andrew Gonzalez from ParlayX

• Bringing poker tournament mechanics to sports predictions w/ Robert McCall from The Sharps

• At the intersection of sports betting and financial trading w/ Frank Li

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