The Next: Volume 7, with XST Capital Group

XST Capital Group presents The Next, a recurring series featuring founders, CEO’s, and key industry thought leaders to discuss the companies shaping innovation with the digital gaming sector. In this edition, XST Capital Group founder Joel Simkins speaks with Simon Gerszberg, CEO of ShotQuality. This interview originally appeared on the XST Capital Group website.

“Can you get into the genesis of ShotQuality, and what opening in the gaming industry you looked to fill in creating this business?”

To be honest, ShotQuality's journey was more serendipitous than planned. It all started from my love for basketball data and wanting to solve a specific problem for the Colgate coaching staff: how to objectively evaluate the quality of shots, beyond just the outcome of whether the shot went in or not. We aimed to automate this process so they could focus on evaluating their “process” rather than just the “results.”

After launching the product for college basketball coaches, we unexpectedly saw bettors gravitating toward our platform, and soon after, sportsbook traders followed. The gap we’ve been able to fill for all these groups comes from using expected data—similar to xG in soccer or xBA in baseball—getting to the core of what’s truly happening in the game. This allows us to predict team and player performance more accurately, while others might fall into the trap of outcome bias.

“You started ShotQuality while you were in college. What was it like to build your business at this stage, and what kind of unique opportunities or challenges did you have as a result?”

I never really set out to be an entrepreneur or "businessman,” if you could even describe me as that. When you truly love what you're doing and are deeply passionate about it, it doesn’t feel like work, and the challenges seem ten times easier. However, balancing the demands of running a business while still managing schoolwork was tough when I was at school in 2022—because my schoolwork did feel like work. It took a significant amount of time and energy to juggle both, and eventually, I reached a point where I had to choose to continue balancing both or focusing on ShotQuality full-time. For me it was a no-brainer, but convincing my parents to let me drop out was a battle, and raising our first round of $3M was the validation I needed to get my parents on board and for me to go all in.

After that point, every day presented new challenges. Nothing bothers me more than when I hear other entrepreneurs talk about how "great" everything is going, because that’s rarely the case. Every day, week, or month is about solving a new problem, and the goal is simply for those problems to get smaller and smaller over time. For us, one of our biggest early problems was data autonomy.

We relied on another company’s data to calculate our shot quality metric. We were fortunate to build this incredible team of data extraction wizards over the last 3 years with PhD-level computer vision experts, ML engineers, cloud engineers, our human vision team, and backend engineers, as it marked the beginning of solving our company's biggest challenge: becoming autonomous. Today, we have minimal reliance on external companies, not only selling our shot quality metric but also offering the raw data we now extract ourselves.

“For those that are unfamiliar, can you give an overview of how your shot probability modeling works? How does your data and predictive modeling compare to others in the industry, and what sets you apart?“

Our model is both simple and complex at the same time. Essentially, anything that impacts the game of basketball and whether a shot goes in now plays a significant role in our calculation. Early on, when I was manually grading shots from behind the Colgate bench, the process was subjective, and we missed a lot of key variables, relying heavily on estimation. Today, our model incorporates up to 100 different variables, including what I consider to be the three core elements that influence shot quality:

• Defensive Context: How does the defender’s ability and positioning impact the shot? For example, if the closest defender is Victor Wembanyama, standing at 7’4” with his hands straight up, that's a very different challenge compared to being guarded by someone much smaller and less capable defensively. Defensive presence, positioning, and closeout speed all play a critical role in shot difficulty.

• Shooter Ability and Player Performance: How good is the shooter? Stephen Curry, as an elite three-point shooter, poses a different threat from someone like Russell Westbrook, who has struggled from beyond the arc. Historical performance data, player tendencies, and current form all factor into the equation.

• Shot Type Descriptors: What type of shot is being taken? We account for variables such as whether the shot is a dunk, a catch-and-shoot, taken off the dribble, or a 38-foot shot compared to a 6-foot shot. The shot type and distance make a huge difference in determining its probability of success.

What sets us apart from others in the industry is primarily our defensive context variable. We are the first company to implement player tracking data across every NBA, WNBA, and NCAAM game, and just last year, we processed data from over 12,000 basketball games. This upcoming year, we have expanded to over 15,000 games, adding 12 international leagues for our clients. This player tracking data allows us to integrate previously unavailable variables like defender speed, acceleration, closeout angles, and even shooter movement metrics, including how fast a player is moving when they release a shot.

Finally, our autonomy in data collection further differentiates us. We built our proprietary infrastructure focused on a combination of computer vision, human-in-the-loop, and data science, giving us full control over the quality, timeliness, and scope of the data we offer. This control allows us to be more innovative and ensures we can move faster than anyone else in the market.

“ShotQuality sells player location data to some of the top syndicates, odds providers, and media companies. How are you managing these partnerships, and how do you convince these platforms to let you address this technological gap rather than keeping it in-house?“

We let the data speak for itself. One of our core strategies is to demonstrate value upfront by offering potential clients the chance to test our data sets before making any long-term commitments. This allows them to directly compare our unique, predictive data against their existing models. That hands-on experience is critical in showing how seamlessly our data integrates with their systems while boosting their ROI.

We understand that our data isn’t the single, definitive answer for predicting games, but it’s a crucial piece for getting as close as possible to the true price. By addressing gaps in their models and providing highly predictive player metrics, we show these platforms that outsourcing this specialized task to us delivers better results than trying to build their own data extraction teams, which sportsbooks haven’t successfully done quite yet.

“With ShotQuality being both a B2B and B2C business, how do you manage two separate business models? Are you leaning more into a multi-brand strategy?”

While we offer both B2B and B2C products, our primary focus is on the B2B side, where we provide value to our partners through our powerful API and trading tools. This platform seamlessly integrates and helps organizations improve player and team ratings, and is being used by a few of the tier1 sportsbooks currently.

Our B2C platform, ShotQualityBets, gives individual fans and bettors breadcrumbs of the unique insights we bring to the basketball world. Users are able to purchase a subscription and view unique aggregated expected statistics for the NBA, WNBA, and NCAA leagues. ShotQualityBets generates excitement and media buzz, but the real depth of value lies within our B2B offerings, where clients can fully leverage the platform’s full capabilities.

By balancing these two channels, we’ve created a cohesive ecosystem that fuels sustainable growth. The B2C side raises awareness and engagement, while our B2B solutions remain the core driver of long-term success for those seeking deeper integration and advanced insights.

“You seem to have a huge passion for statistics and the benefits they can have in sports analysis. How do you see this facet of the industry evolving?”

The obvious answer is AI and increased automation, but I truly believe that there will always need to be a human in the loop to guide these AI tools toward being as effective and efficient as possible. For instance, traders will continue to play a significant role in effective bookmaking, as I don’t believe it's possible to perfectly automate everything. While AI models and automation will undoubtedly expand, human insights are crucial to ensure these technologies are applied in the right way.

So yes, as data and AI get stronger, we’ll see more automation in sports analysis, but the focus should be on positioning humans to leverage AI to their advantage. It’s not just about replacing manual tasks but empowering people with smarter tools to make better decisions.

“What has been critical to your growth so far, and what are the key drivers for user growth you will focus on going forward?” 

The critical driver of our growth has always been our ability to develop highly predictive data. From our early days of working with coaches to our evolution into a resource for sportsbooks and operators, the one constant has been the unique data extraction engine we’ve created. By combining computer vision, human expertise, and data science, we’ve developed a system that’s unlike anything in the sports analytics industry. We are the first company to implement player tracking across 12,000+ games, spanning the NBA, WNBA, and NCAA. This season, we’re expanding that reach to over 12 more international leagues, further solidifying our position as an industry leader in advanced basketball analytics.

“Do you plan to move your technology into other sports, and if so, where do you see the most opportunity for further growth?”

We’ve recently begun expanding into new sports, which is a significant development for us. In addition to basketball, we’ve started a project in tennis with a performance analytics company and are now exploring opportunities in a few other sports as well. Each of these sports presents a huge opportunity for growth, but also significant risk if we don’t enter with the right expertise.

To mitigate this, we’re taking a strategic approach by acting as a supplier of our infrastructure—leveraging computer vision, human vision, and data science expertise—for syndicates and sportsbooks that have specialized data requests. Our infrastructure is designed to handle these needs efficiently and at scale, allowing us to provide tailored solutions to those who already have deep knowledge of the sport.

”ShotQuality holds a huge media presence, on social media, podcasts, and with broadcast partnerships. Tell us a bit about your use of media and how it supports your business and community.”

We’ve built a strong media presence across social media, podcasts, and through broadcast partnerships, all of which play a key role in supporting both our business and our community. What sets us apart is that we focus exclusively on organic marketing—and it’s been incredibly effective.

A standout moment occurred on February 3rd, 2024 when ShotQuality’s analytics were featured on CBS during the Memphis vs. Wichita State game. Our data highlighted the predictive power of ShotQuality by anticipating Memphis’s comeback victory despite traditional win probability metrics. With 7:39 remaining in the game, Memphis was down by 14 points. Based on ESPN's win probability they had a 3.1% to win the game. However, CBS showed a ShotQuality graphic stating the game should have been tied based on the quality of shots taken, proving Memphis was due for positive regression. Memphis ultimately pulled off the comeback, winning the game on a mid-range shot with 2.8 seconds left!

By letting our data speak for itself, we’ve built a large, engaged community that values real, data-driven insights. Rather than just marketing, we focus on delivering unique analysis that resonates with fans and professionals alike. This approach helps us stand out in the sports analytics industry, offering genuine value to a growing audience.

“What can users expect to see from ShotQuality in the next 3-5 years? Can you give us any insight into the roadmap ahead?”

In the next 3-5 years, I envision ShotQuality expanding well beyond basketball, with multiple sports in our portfolio. Our goal is to become one of the primary data sources driving the pricing models for the largest sportsbooks globally. Right now, our infrastructure is primed to take on the next sport, but we're focused on expanding strategically and efficiently.

By that time, I expect us to be fully operational in at least three sports, not only handling basic data extraction but also being on the cutting edge of advanced data science. We aim to apply our expertise in expected metrics across these new sports, creating high-value insights that go far beyond simple play-by-play analysis.

One of the key challenges sportsbooks face is the sheer volume of data, such as analyzing the x/y coordinates of the seventh player on the court in the third minute and 16th second of the game. Their data science teams don’t have the bandwidth to extract the granular insights from this raw data. That’s where we come in. Our focus will continue to be on delivering high-impact, refined data points—insights that lead directly to a significant ROI for our sportsbook partners.

Looking ahead, we’re committed to building scalable, automated solutions that can seamlessly work across multiple sports. Our vision is to make our expected metrics the go-to standard in the industry, whether it’s soccer, cricket, football, tennis, or other sports on our roadmap. Our goal remains the same: to provide the most accurate and actionable raw and predictive data points, helping our clients stay ahead of the curve and make smarter decisions based on the underlying dynamics of each game.

“Simon, thank you for the interesting discussion. I know you and the ShotQuality team are full throttle, but tell us, what do you like to do in your downtime?” 

I’m a massive Jets fan and, unfortunately, attend every single game. As my dad puts it, it "builds character," but more often than not, it just brings pain and misery! Outside of that, I’m always trying to pick up new hobbies, like playing guitar and journaling. These have become great creative outlets for me, and a nice way to decompress and stay big picture focused. I also make it a point to take some downtime during my work travels so I can experience the world outside of my apartment in Brooklyn. Cheers thanks Joel!

Simon Gerszberg - Biography

Simon is a young founder with a passion for asking questions and manipulating and analyzing data. His startup, ShotQuality, began while he was at Colgate University, spending his time with the basketball team manually tracking shots and subjectively assigning them "shot quality" scores. He developed a formula to automate the data and make it easier to produce. Now, his data is being used by top NCAA programs, media companies, premium bettors, and sportbooks to improve their edge. They are the first company to have player tracking data for every NCAAM, NBA, and WNBA game.