Waterhouse VC: Finding an edge

Every month, industry investors Waterhouse VC publish an article that spotlights different aspects of the ecosystem. This month, Tom Waterhouse delves into what it takes to find an edge.

In wagering, edge comes from studying what others ignore. Even “robust” systems have cracks. Slot machines with fixed returns to players (RTPs) and roulette wheels have been beaten by those who questioned the machinery and hunted for inefficiencies. Profit in wagering is common; scale is the true differentiator.

This month we spotlight Bernard Marantelli - one of the few who can industrialise edge. In 2023 he orchestrated a coup on the Texas lottery for US$57.8M - arguably the largest single advantage play on record.

He’s also a builder. Someone who moved from solely hunting inefficiencies to building infrastructure that others depend on. Across White Swan Data, Colossus Bets, Colossus Fantasy, and most recently iBankroll, his career has been a systematic search for scalable edge. Waterhouse VC is fortunate to have him as an investor and collaborator in our network.

Pedigree 

Marantelli grew up in Melbourne in a bookmaking family. His father, Gavin worked (and still works) on-course; his uncles and cousins were also bookies. As a teen he clerked and helped his father with greyhound form. Hours of race replays taught him that to beat the market, you must know more than everyone else.

He studied Genetics and Biochemistry at UWA, but punting stayed central. Like many university students, bankroll discipline was thin. He might stake A$500 on a dog with only A$2,000 to his name. He gravitated to pools where careful preparation exposed mispriced combinations in exotics. However, pre-internet seeing the local bookmaking trade and betting in general on the wane, he moved to London for biotech in 1998.

Exchange 

Betfair launched two years later. With a university friend, he built algorithmic bots to attack inefficient prices. The approach is commonplace now; then it offered real edge. By 2004 he was betting systematically at volume. Still unsure whether to pursue a full time career in betting, the trading experience sent him to finance. He finished an MBA at London Business School and joined Deutsche Bank’s options desk in 2007.

Scoop 6

Despite the full time job at Deutsche, he was still hunting for gambling opportunities, and his attention turned to the UK Tote’s Scoop6 jackpot. Because of the rolling nature of the jackpot, positive expected value (EV) situations can arise for those who can price races well and execute at scale with bankroll to support the volatility.

Back home, when the Big 6 swelled, his father and friends pooled capital and fired at seven- figure pools. Marantelli won his first Scoop6 attempt in 2004, netting about 150K and doubling his bankroll in a week. In late 2009, he won the Scoop6 and bonus solo on two successive series netting about £1 million each time. He warned his boss there might be publicity. The reply was blunt. “What the **** are you doing still working here?” He took the hint and left in 2010.

Six years later, the jackpot hit record territory. He organised coverage, landed one of eight winning tickets, and the following week his syndicate shared the £5.5 million bonus when Top Boy won at York - the biggest scoop rollover and bonus ever.

Player to Product

Playing the Scoop6 religiously highlighted a structural flaw. Multi-leg pools trap players between legs and there is no ability to hedge. Win four of six and you're holding a ticket worth millions or nothing.

In 2012, Marantelli founded Colossus Bets to fix that. He introduced what is now standard across the industry: cash-out (then branded “cash-in”), giving players a way to realise value mid-bet. He patented the idea, and the world quickly copied it. Cash out is now industry standard, and he is in the middle of a multi-million dollar infringement case against DraftKings.

He also built syndicates, so bettors could combine stakes and share returns in proportion to their contributions - the cooperative model he knew was essential for landing outsized jackpots.

White Swan

The pursuit of edge continued. In 2019 he started White Swan Data, a formalisation of his betting group, initially to focus on better models for betting for himself, but more recently to monetise that data and knowledge on either side of the fence.

The focus is on exploring any vertical that can be monetised, investing heavily in data collection to widen that edge over time. Today White Swan runs proprietary models across most sports including soccer, boxing, MMA, tennis, cricket and horse racing, as well as daily fantasy. The team has grown from 10 to 150 plus today, split evenly across quant, engineering and commercial.

Texas Showdown

n the spring of 2023 his dedicated lottery-tracking team flagged an opportunity in Texas where the jackpot had swollen to US$70 million. Six numbers from a field of 54, with 25.8 million combinations at one dollar per line. It was “school boy maths” - but to maximise value, Marantelli would need near-total coverage while avoiding obvious sequences to reduce the risk of a split pot.

With a tested playbook after other smaller wins overseas, Marantelli gathered a 30-plus- person team for a round-the-clock operation. They secured access to official ticket-printing terminals and ran a three-day print across multiple official sites. Every combination became a scannable code, rotas ensured 24/7 production; boxes were indexed so the winner could be found quickly. Marantelli’s airport Uber driver, was even enlisted, with wages tripled to keep the lines running.

They bought 99.3% of the possibilities and one of the tickets hit. The prize was claimed anonymously through a limited partnership and the US$95 million annuity collected as a cash-value jackpot paid US$57.8 million.

iBankroll

Marantelli’s latest venture flips him from hunter to game keeper. For wagering operators, especially for challenger brands, the biggest risk is bankroll. A small share of users drives most GGR, and the same cohort can wipe you out overnight.

iBankroll absorbs operator variance. Partners stream wager-level data, receive a fixed share of expected GGR upfront. In return, iBankroll shoulders the volatility. That underwriting lets operators raise limits, fund instant withdrawals, and compete for VIP play without stressing the balance sheet.

It also gives challenger brands day one credibility to take “Stake sized stakes” and brands such as Klub28 already bannering their website with iBankroll for customer assurance, and Marantelli believes it will become industry standard.

He believes that number will be reached in less than six months, with 15 already signed and 20 more in discussions.

Marantelli’s core skill is risk management. Here it’s packaged as bankroll-as-a-service: a safety net that converts edge into stable, financeable revenue.

Power of the Network

Marantelli's career is a loop: find inefficiencies, build systems to exploit them at scale. White Swan hunts edges. Colossus lets bettors monetise pools. iBankroll now underwrites operator risk. He plays both sides of the table and raises the bar for the market.

The tools he's built are practical and competitive. Having individuals like Bernard in our network is incredibly valuable - people with deep, cross-market know-how and a willingness to collaborate on real opportunities.

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